3-Model NWP Ensemble
Forecasts blend three independent numerical weather prediction models: NOAA GFS (31-member GEFS ensemble), ECMWF AIFS, and DWD ICON. Multi-model disagreement is a feature, not a bug — it tells us how confident to be.
AI-powered 15-day snow forecasts for 53 ski resorts. The only forecast you can verify — every prediction is scored daily against NOAA SNOTEL observations and our accuracy is published publicly.
Resorts with significant snowfall in the next 48 hours
Most snow forecasts are a single NWP model in a pretty wrapper. We built a real ensemble.
Select a resort for detailed 15-day probabilistic snow predictions
Purpose-built for skiers who want accurate, actionable snow forecasts
Forecasts blend three independent numerical weather prediction models: NOAA GFS (31-member GEFS ensemble), ECMWF AIFS, and DWD ICON. Multi-model disagreement is a feature, not a bug — it tells us how confident to be.
XGBoost trained on 26 high-altitude observation stations across the West and Northeast, with 112 features including ERA5 reanalysis, HRRR, climate indices, and orographic physics. 33% more accurate than our previous generation.
Most models struggle with Sierra orographics and Eastern synoptic storms. We extended training to Mammoth Pass, Gem Lake, Central Sierra Snow Lab, Pinkham Notch, and Mt. Mansfield — cutting Sierra error by 56%.
Every prediction is scored daily against NOAA SNOTEL and GHCN observations. Unlike other services, we publish our track record publicly at /scorecard — no cherry-picking, no manual adjustments.
Get notified when significant snowfall is in the forecast. Alerts highlight resorts expecting 6+ inches with high ensemble agreement, so you never miss a powder day.
Forecasts refresh after each GEFS model cycle (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). You always see the latest data, with forecasts extending 15 days from the most recent run.
From global weather model to your mountain's snow forecast
We pull the latest 31-member GEFS ensemble from NOAA at 0.25° resolution, extracting precipitation, temperature, and wind for each resort's grid point.
Mountains squeeze extra moisture from clouds. We apply per-resort, wind-direction-dependent orographic multipliers with dynamic damping for heavy precipitation events.
Liquid precipitation is converted to snow depth using Kuchera snow-to-liquid ratios that account for temperature. Lapse rate corrections adjust for the difference between GEFS grid elevation and actual summit/base elevations.
The 31 ensemble members give us a probability distribution. We report the 10th percentile (conservative), 50th (expected), and 90th (optimistic) for each 6-hour period, then aggregate to daily totals.
Snow forecasts for ski resorts across the western United States and beyond
Everything you need to know about PowCall's snow forecasts
Check the latest 15-day snow forecasts for all 50+ ski resorts.
❄ View Snow Dashboard